When the final envelope is opened Sunday evening, the movie awarded the Oscar for best picture may not be the film that the most voters chose as best picture.
Let us explain.
Uniquely among the categories, the night’s top prize is selected via ranked choice. (Other contests decided by ranked-choice methods such as an instant runoff include certain federal elections in Maine and New York City’s mayoral race.)
For every other Oscar category, each voter selects one nominee, and the nominee that appears on the most ballots wins.
But for best picture, voters rank up to all 10 nominees. The ultimate winner is not necessarily the one that initially appears in the No. 1 spot the most. In fact, it may well prove more important which movie is most often ranked second.
The Oscars’ instant-runoff system, instituted for best picture in 2010, requires a movie to receive more than 50 percent of the No. 1 spots on ballots to win. If no movie qualifies, then the movie with the fewest No. 1 votes is eliminated; ballots with that movie in their No. 1 slot now have their No. 2 movie counted as their top choice. The eliminations continue until one movie has more than 50 percent.
Imagine a ballot with “The Substance” ranked No. 1, “Anora” No. 2 and “The Brutalist” No. 3. If “The Substance” is eliminated before “Anora” and “The Brutalist,” as expected, then that ballot would effectively count as a vote for “Anora” — and would continue to, unless “Anora” is eliminated before “The Brutalist,” in which case the ballot would count for “The Brutalist.”
This system means that, in some years, it could pay more to be the overwhelming favorite for the No. 2 slot than it is to achieve a small plurality of No. 1 slots. (The Academy does not make figures available after the fact.)
Imagine a full contest. The top two movies to appear on voters’ No. 1 slots are “Movie A” and “Movie B” — films that have garnered passionate fans along with some steadfast detractors who ranked them near the bottom. “Movie A” and “Movie B” are the top pick on 29 percent and 27 percent of ballots — not nearly enough for either to declare victory instantly. The eliminations begin.
After seven rounds, a three-way race has emerged among “Movie A” and “Movie B” and a third film, “Movie C,” which was fewer voters’ absolute favorite but was well-regarded by virtually everyone — meaning almost nobody ranked it near the bottom.
While “Movie A” and “Movie B” started out with the most first-place votes, now “Movie A” has the most, followed by “Movie C.” “Movie B” is eliminated. On 75 percent of the ballots that had “Movie B” at the top, “Movie C” — the less polarizing, broadly liked movie — is ranked higher than “Movie A.” The fresh influx of votes for “Movie C” causes “Movie C,” the slow-and-steady contender, to defeat “Movie A,” even though both “Movie A” and, for that matter, “Movie B” began the process with the most first-place votes.
The winner of the Oscar for best picture in this case is “Movie C.”
It may not happen this way, of course. It could be that “Movie A” (perhaps a real movie with fervent fans and more than a few skeptics, like “Anora”) or “Movie B” (“The Brutalist,” say) could ride its polarizing status and plethora of No. 1 slots to victory. But if not, look for a movie in the manner of “Movie C” (maybe a widely palatable movie that begins with C, like “Conclave”) to emerge as a surprise victor.
Which, come to think of it, is the plot of “Conclave.”
Source: Movies - nytimes.com
