Why the Documentary Oscar Race Is the Most Unpredictable One

Most post-nomination Oscar chatter focuses on surprises and snubs connected to the fiction nominees. But I’m a nonfiction nerd, so for me the documentaries are where it’s at, and in recent years, the picks have grown delightfully unpredictable.

This year, two seeming slam dunks were left off the list: “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” and “American Symphony,” about the musician Jon Batiste. Both are artful, and their nominations had seemed assured because, at least in the past, well-made portraits tended to get eyeballs and thus votes.

But here we are, in a strange new world. Biographical documentaries are still hugely popular; next to true crime, they’re what’s hot in nonfiction right now, as our recently reviewed releases “June” and “Lil Nas X: Long Live Montero” indicate. This time around, though, the voters cast their net more widely.

Much more widely, in fact. Don’t look now, but this may be the most groundbreaking category at the awards. All five are international films, centering mostly on geopolitical situations. Three are directed by women. And all five are also, as it happens, very good.

“The Eternal Memory,” a second nomination for the Chilean director Maite Alberdi (her first was “The Mole Agent”), landed on my Top 10 list last year. (Stream it on Paramount+.) It deals with the erasure of public memory in Chile, refracted through the relationship of one couple: the prominent cultural journalist Augusto Gongora and his wife, Paulina Urrutia, as she cares for him after an Alzheimer’s diagnosis. (Gongora died last May.)

The nomination of “Four Daughters” made its Tunisian director, Kaouther Ben Hania, the first Arab woman to be nominated twice at the Oscars. (Her first, “The Man Who Sold His Skin,” was nominated for best international feature.) “Four Daughters” (for rent on most major platforms and streaming here) explores radicalization in a single Tunisian family and uses unexpected techniques, like having actors play out scenes in the family’s life.