For all the singing competition’s silliness, one aspect of Eurovision is serious business: the betting.
Gambling companies expect Eurovision fans to wager about $265 million on the contest’s outcome, said Sam Eaton of Oddschecker, a British company that aggregates odds for major events.
Eaton said that Eurovision was usually “the biggest market of the year” for online bookmakers, after sports events and elections.
This year, gambling companies predict that Kaj, Sweden’s representative, is most likely to win. The comedy group will be singing “Bara Bada Bastu,” a catchy, if somewhat silly, track about the joys of taking a sauna.
Kaj’s only serious rival, Eaton said, is JJ, an opera singer representing Austria with “Wasted Love.”
How can bookmakers be so sure that this year’s Eurovision is a two-horse race? Eaton says the answer lies in data, especially the numerous Eurovision fan websites that run polls asking which song should win.
A poll run by Eurovisionworld.com, for instance, had received over 220,000 votes as of Saturday. Kaj topped that poll with 17 percent, and JJ was second with 15 percent. Erika Vikman, representing Finland, and Shkodra Elektronike, Albania’s representative, were together in a distant third with 6 percent. The fans who voted in those polls were also likely to participate in Eurovision’s public vote to decide the winner, Eaton said.
In seven of the past nine years, Eaton added, the act that topped those fans poll had gone on to win. “Eurovision is one of the easiest events to bet on,” Eaton said: “The information’s all there.”
Source: Music - nytimes.com
